What the backfill says so far
The setup-match rule re-run on 52 past Fridays (Nov 2025 to Oct 2026), using only the data available on each date. No notes and no hindsight in the rule, but the stock list is today's 50 largest (survivorship).
- 'Leans rally' calls were up 62% of the time after 20 sessions, against the 72% their lookalikes implied and a 53% baseline. The rule picks better-than-average setups but overstates the odds.
- 'Leans drop' calls were up 54% of the time (lookalikes implied 47%, baseline 64%). Median return +0.8%, −0.2% vs SPY: weaker than average, but not a short signal.
- Rally calls beat drop calls in 65% of 48 weekly snapshots, by a median 1.4 points over 20 sessions. Weekly snapshots overlap (each 20-session window spans four of them), so this is closer to 12 independent tests than 48.
- Worst dip inside the 20 sessions (median): rally calls −3.3%, drop calls −4.3%. Even the good calls usually went against you first, which matters for short-dated options.
| Call | Calls | Stocks | Dates | Up after 20 | Lookalikes said | Baseline | Median 20 | Median vs SPY | Beat SPY | Worst dip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leans rally | 701 | 49 | 48 | 61.8% | 71.9% | 53.2% | +1.9% | +0.5% | 52.9% | −3.3% |
| No clear edge | 1356 | 52 | 48 | 54.1% | 58.9% | 58.4% | +1.0% | −0.0% | 49.2% | −3.8% |
| Leans drop | 352 | 46 | 48 | 53.7% | 46.9% | 64.3% | +0.8% | −0.2% | 48.3% | −4.3% |
| Too few lookalikes | 87 | 13 | 41 | 64.4% | – | 63.2% | +5.6% | +3.8% | 65.5% | −8.2% |
Live snapshots
| Saved | Sessions since | Large caps | Watchlist | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | 0 | 52 | 29 | 20 sessions to go |
Nothing to score yet: the first live snapshot needs at least one more close.
Watchlist picks
Picks are scored after the next close.
| Saved | Rank | Symbol | Close then | Next day | 5 | 10 | 20 | vs SPY 20 | Worst in 20 | So far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | 1 | ALNY | $161.08 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 2 | TER | $250.99 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 3 | ADM | $70.84 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 4 | STX | $557.06 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 5 | ALAB | $223.27 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 6 | CAT | $591.30 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 7 | NVDA | $200.13 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 8 | DDOG | $188.72 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 9 | DVN | $44.12 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 10 | MRVL | $159.80 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 11 | RDDT | $101.89 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 12 | KEYS | $285.86 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 13 | CVS | $79.96 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 14 | LRCX | $221.43 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 15 | FANG | $182.88 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 16 | ASML | $1,496.30 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 17 | COHR | $195.09 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 18 | FCX | $62.60 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 19 | FFIV | $329.72 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 20 | FIS | $29.76 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 21 | BKR | $49.87 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 22 | CF | $111.68 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 23 | TT | $410.48 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 24 | FLEX | $77.24 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 25 | GLW | $118.77 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 26 | NOW | $108.81 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 27 | AMAT | $369.40 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 28 | KMI | $31.52 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nov 4 | 29 | WMB | $67.86 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Reading this honestly
- Scores need time: a 20-session call takes four weeks to grade. Daily updates add overlapping calls on the same stocks, not independent evidence.
- Compare each group with the baseline and with SPY, not with zero. In a rising market most calls go up.
- The live snapshots keep the hand-written causes, so later you can ask which kind of story (AI spending, one-time, market-wide) the calls got right.