- 5 days
- +4.7%
- From 52-wk high
- +0.0%
- vs 200-day
- +26.9%
- RSI 14
- 64.3
- 1 month
- +5.0%
- Next earnings
- –
Daily candles, 6 months
Today vs its past
Its current slide on top of its past 15%+ slides, and what followed charts that looked like today's.
| Next N sessions up | n | 5 | 10 | 20 | Median 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own lookalikes | 2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | −3.3% |
| 50-stock pool | 118 | 48.3% | 55.9% | 54.2% | +1.1% |
| Baseline (any day) | all | 56.4% | 53.1% | 51.9% | +0.3% |
- MSFT's 3 rally runs since Nov 2024 started from -34% to -24% below the high, RSI 22-29. Today: 0%, RSI 64.
- Only 2 lookalikes in its own history, so the large-cap pool carries the read. That pool mixes in other stocks.
7%+ one-day drops since Nov 2024
| Date | Drop | QQQ | Kind | Cause | Low after | Sessions to low | Back in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | −10.0% | −0.6% | AI spend | FQ2 2026: Azure +39% a hair under estimates, capex +66% to $37.5B. Worst day since 2020. | −26.4% | 101 | 128 |
7%+ up days and rally runs
| Date | Gain | QQQ | Setup before | Cause | Next 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2025 | +10.1% | +12.0% | -24%, RSI 28 | 90-day tariff pause (market-wide; QQQ +12%). | +12.2% |
| May 1, 2025 | +7.6% | +1.3% | -15%, RSI 58 | FQ3 2025: Azure beat. | +8.4% |
| Jul 30, 2026 | +15.5% | +3.3% | -27%, RSI 50 | FQ4 2026: Azure +43%, guided faster, cut 2026 capex to $175B. Ended a 6-month AI-spend slump. | +12.2% |
Rally runs (20%+ from a low)
| Low | High | Gain | Sessions | From high at low | RSI at low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025 | Oct 28, 2025 | +53.4% | 140 | −23.7% | 28 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Jun 1, 2026 | +29.4% | 44 | −33.9% | 22 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 4, 2026 (ongoing) | +57.8% | 92 | −34.5% | 29 |
Calls on MSFT and what followed
Live = saved on the day. Backfill = the same rule re-run on past weeks with only the data known then.
| Date | Kind | Call | From high | RSI | Next 5 | Next 20 | vs SPY 20 | Worst in 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | live | No clear edge | +0.0% | 64 | – | – | – | – |
| Oct 30, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −4.0% | 49 | – | – | – | −2.8% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −3.5% | 53 | −0.5% | – | – | −3.3% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −2.6% | 57 | −0.9% | – | – | −4.1% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −0.5% | 68 | −1.1% | – | – | −5.2% |
| Oct 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −3.7% | 63 | +3.4% | +0.8% | +2.7% | +0.7% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −4.0% | 63 | +0.3% | +1.6% | +3.1% | −1.4% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −8.2% | 53 | +4.5% | +7.1% | +6.9% | +0.8% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −7.8% | 57 | −0.4% | +8.0% | +5.8% | −1.1% |
| Sep 4, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −7.1% | 60 | +1.1% | +5.1% | +4.2% | −1.9% |
| Aug 28, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −4.5% | 74 | −2.7% | −0.8% | −0.6% | −4.5% |
| Aug 21, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −10.1% | 63 | +6.3% | +3.8% | +2.5% | +0.8% |
| Aug 14, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −8.0% | 71 | −2.3% | +2.2% | +4.2% | −3.0% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −7.2% | 78 | −0.9% | +0.1% | +0.5% | −3.9% |
| Jul 31, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −13.7% | 74 | +7.6% | +10.7% | +7.7% | +3.4% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −29.1% | 45 | +21.8% | +26.8% | +23.2% | +1.9% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −26.9% | 52 | −3.1% | +25.8% | +21.3% | −3.1% |
| Jul 10, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −28.5% | 48 | +2.3% | +29.8% | +27.4% | −0.9% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −27.5% | 50 | −1.4% | +19.0% | +18.7% | −2.3% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −30.8% | 40 | +3.7% | +4.3% | +2.9% | −1.2% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −29.6% | 35 | −1.7% | +6.0% | +6.7% | −7.0% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −27.5% | 37 | −6.0% | −1.5% | −3.1% | −9.7% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −22.6% | 48 | −6.2% | −6.7% | −8.3% | −15.3% |
| May 29, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −16.4% | 70 | −7.5% | −18.1% | −16.3% | −21.6% |
| May 22, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −22.3% | 55 | +10.0% | −10.7% | −9.3% | −12.2% |
| May 15, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −21.8% | 58 | −0.6% | −5.0% | −7.2% | −7.3% |
| May 8, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −23.1% | 54 | +1.6% | −0.6% | −0.8% | −2.4% |
| May 1, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −23.2% | 54 | +0.2% | +11.4% | +6.1% | −2.2% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −21.3% | 64 | −2.4% | −1.2% | −5.7% | −4.6% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −21.7% | 72 | +0.4% | −0.2% | −4.3% | −4.2% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −31.3% | 38 | +14.0% | +11.9% | +3.4% | +3.6% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −30.8% | 40 | −0.7% | +11.0% | +1.1% | −0.7% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −33.9% | 22 | +4.5% | +19.1% | +6.3% | +0.6% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −29.3% | 32 | −6.6% | +9.5% | +0.2% | −6.6% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −26.7% | 39 | −3.5% | −2.8% | −6.7% | −9.8% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −24.2% | 48 | −3.3% | −8.8% | −7.1% | −12.8% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −27.2% | 37 | +4.1% | −9.2% | −1.8% | −9.2% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −26.4% | 32 | −1.1% | −3.9% | +1.8% | −3.9% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −25.8% | 32 | −4.0% | −0.1% | +1.8% | −4.0% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −25.9% | 29 | +0.0% | +2.3% | +4.1% | −3.9% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −20.5% | 33 | −6.8% | −7.2% | −6.4% | −10.4% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −13.9% | 46 | −7.7% | −17.3% | −16.3% | −17.3% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −15.0% | 34 | +2.3% | −13.7% | −12.4% | −14.4% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −11.4% | 46 | −4.1% | −13.7% | −13.7% | −17.9% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −12.6% | 37 | +1.3% | −10.5% | −12.3% | −10.5% |
| Dec 26, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −9.9% | 50 | −3.0% | −1.5% | −2.2% | −8.9% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −10.2% | 49 | +0.2% | −8.6% | −9.3% | −8.6% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −11.6% | 42 | +1.5% | −1.6% | −3.7% | −1.6% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −10.7% | 42 | −1.0% | −1.0% | −2.2% | −2.1% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −9.1% | 45 | −1.8% | −1.0% | −1.9% | −3.5% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −12.7% | 28 | +3.1% | +2.7% | −1.5% | +0.4% |
| Nov 14, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −5.9% | 47 | −7.3% | −6.8% | −8.1% | −7.3% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −8.3% | 34 | +2.7% | −1.0% | −2.9% | −4.8% |