- 5 days
- −11.2%
- From 52-wk high
- −48.9%
- vs 200-day
- −16.9%
- RSI 14
- 33.5
- 1 month
- −30.3%
- Next earnings
- Thu Nov 12
Daily candles, 6 months
Today vs its past
Its current slide on top of its past 15%+ slides, and what followed charts that looked like today's.
| Next N sessions up | n | 5 | 10 | 20 | Median 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own lookalikes | 0 | – | – | – | – |
| 50-stock pool | 16 | 43.8% | 56.2% | 56.2% | +1.3% |
| Baseline (any day) | all | 57.3% | 56.6% | 62.7% | +5.0% |
- AMAT's 6 rally runs since Nov 2024 started from -50% to -18% below the high, RSI 23-42. Today: -49%, RSI 34.
- Reports Nov 12. The lookalike stats ignore earnings; the report can swamp them.
- No lookalikes in its own two-year history: today's chart is outside its range. The chart shows other large caps' lookalikes instead.
- Part of the chip unwind: see the chip-index overlay. Past major chip slides took about 190-200 sessions to bottom.
Latest shock vs similar shocks
Headlines
- Applied Materials just dropped 29% in a month: will Nov 12 earnings rescue or break AMAT? 24/7 Wall St. · Nov 3
- ASML fell 6% in Intel's chip rout (AMAT -7.5% same session) Yahoo Finance · Nov 2
- Lam Research sinks on slowing guide; CFO says supply constraints held it back TIKR · Oct 22
7%+ one-day drops since Nov 2024
| Date | Drop | QQQ | Kind | Cause | Low after | Sessions to low | Back in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2024 | −9.2% | −2.4% | −13.0% | 23 | 41 | ||
| Feb 14, 2025 | −8.2% | +0.4% | −30.9% | 34 | 91 | ||
| Apr 3, 2025 | −8.3% | −5.4% | −14.1% | 1 | 5 | ||
| Aug 15, 2025 | −14.1% | −0.4% | −16.8% | 12 | 24 | ||
| Mar 26, 2026 | −8.3% | −2.4% | −12.5% | 2 | 9 | ||
| Jun 5, 2026 | −9.7% | −4.8% | −9.7% | 0 | 5 | ||
| Jul 1, 2026 | −10.0% | −1.5% | −48.9% | 88 | not yet | ||
| Jul 29, 2026 | −8.4% | −2.0% | −8.4% | 0 | 2 | ||
| Sep 14, 2026 | −7.1% | −0.8% | −9.0% | 2 | 6 | ||
| Oct 22, 2026 | −8.2% | −2.9% | −8.2% | 0 | 5 |
7%+ up days and rally runs
| Date | Gain | QQQ | Setup before | Cause | Next 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2025 | +16.1% | +12.0% | -49%, RSI 30 | +4.2% | |
| May 12, 2025 | +8.0% | +4.1% | -39%, RSI 58 | +3.7% | |
| Feb 13, 2026 | +8.1% | +0.2% | -4%, RSI 57 | −2.3% | |
| Apr 8, 2026 | +8.9% | +3.0% | -10%, RSI 52 | +11.1% | |
| Jun 8, 2026 | +8.6% | +1.6% | -10%, RSI 54 | +15.9% | |
| Jun 11, 2026 | +11.2% | +3.4% | -1%, RSI 63 | +4.1% | |
| Jun 25, 2026 | +13.4% | +0.8% | -8%, RSI 64 | −19.7% | |
| Jun 29, 2026 | +10.8% | +2.5% | -6%, RSI 64 | −31.4% | |
| Jul 21, 2026 | +7.4% | +1.9% | -27%, RSI 43 | −8.9% | |
| Jul 30, 2026 | +15.0% | +3.3% | -40%, RSI 34 | −3.8% |
Rally runs (20%+ from a low)
| Low | High | Gain | Sessions | From high at low | RSI at low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2024 | Jan 22, 2025 | +21.1% | 20 | −36.4% | 34 |
| Apr 4, 2025 | Jul 15, 2025 | +57.4% | 68 | −49.9% | 23 |
| Sep 3, 2025 | Feb 25, 2026 | +153.6% | 120 | −26.2% | 31 |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Jun 30, 2026 | +122.9% | 79 | −17.8% | 42 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Aug 12, 2026 | +25.6% | 10 | −39.6% | 34 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 5, 2026 | +30.6% | 13 | −42.5% | 33 |
Calls on AMAT and what followed
Live = saved on the day. Backfill = the same rule re-run on past weeks with only the data known then.
| Date | Kind | Call | From high | RSI | Next 5 | Next 20 | vs SPY 20 | Worst in 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | live | No clear edge | −48.9% | 34 | – | – | – | – |
| Oct 30, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −46.0% | 36 | – | – | – | −5.3% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −47.8% | 26 | +3.4% | – | – | −2.1% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −43.3% | 29 | −7.8% | – | – | −9.7% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −29.8% | 55 | −19.3% | – | – | −27.1% |
| Oct 2, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −25.2% | 69 | −6.1% | −27.8% | −26.0% | −30.5% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −32.8% | 56 | +11.3% | −22.2% | −20.7% | −22.6% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −38.4% | 44 | +9.1% | −7.9% | −8.1% | −7.9% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −36.8% | 42 | −2.6% | +11.1% | +9.0% | −9.0% |
| Sep 4, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −37.0% | 40 | −6.7% | +19.3% | +18.4% | −8.6% |
| Aug 28, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −36.1% | 38 | −1.5% | +5.4% | +5.7% | −10.0% |
| Aug 21, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −31.8% | 43 | −6.2% | −5.7% | −7.0% | −15.6% |
| Aug 14, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −29.9% | 45 | −2.8% | −16.3% | −14.3% | −16.3% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −25.4% | 50 | −5.9% | −15.6% | −15.2% | −19.1% |
| Jul 31, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −29.8% | 45 | +6.2% | −9.0% | −12.0% | −9.0% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −25.8% | 46 | −5.3% | −8.1% | −11.7% | −18.6% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −26.7% | 44 | +1.2% | −4.2% | −8.7% | −17.6% |
| Jul 10, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −16.7% | 54 | −12.1% | −10.5% | −12.9% | −27.6% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −16.6% | 54 | −0.1% | −15.8% | −16.1% | −27.6% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −6.2% | 64 | −5.4% | −17.5% | −18.9% | −17.5% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 76 | +1.6% | −14.8% | −14.2% | −14.8% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 74 | +12.9% | +5.0% | +3.4% | −2.2% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −9.7% | 54 | +25.2% | +22.4% | +20.8% | +8.6% |
| May 29, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −1.1% | 62 | +0.7% | +54.3% | +56.1% | +0.7% |
| May 22, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −2.5% | 58 | +6.0% | +35.6% | +36.9% | +3.7% |
| May 15, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.6% | 62 | −0.9% | +34.3% | +32.2% | −6.8% |
| May 8, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 65 | +0.3% | +13.2% | +13.0% | −6.6% |
| May 1, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −6.7% | 53 | +11.9% | +17.9% | +12.6% | +0.6% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 69 | −6.7% | +3.8% | −0.7% | −8.6% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −0.6% | 64 | +5.1% | +10.0% | +5.9% | −4.0% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 66 | −0.6% | +9.0% | +0.4% | −4.6% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −11.8% | 50 | +14.6% | +11.7% | +1.8% | +1.2% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −14.6% | 45 | +4.6% | +20.1% | +7.3% | −4.2% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −9.6% | 55 | −5.6% | +9.7% | +0.4% | −9.5% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −13.5% | 49 | +4.5% | +15.9% | +12.0% | −5.4% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −17.8% | 42 | +5.2% | +8.6% | +10.3% | −0.5% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −5.7% | 62 | −12.8% | −9.4% | −2.1% | −12.8% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 70 | −0.8% | −4.9% | +0.8% | −13.5% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | +0.0% | 65 | +5.4% | −2.3% | −0.5% | −8.4% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −5.5% | 57 | +10.0% | +5.2% | +7.0% | +0.8% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −5.6% | 60 | +0.1% | +15.6% | +16.4% | −7.7% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −1.4% | 67 | −0.0% | +16.0% | +17.0% | −7.7% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | +0.0% | 75 | −2.3% | +9.8% | +11.1% | −9.0% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 69 | +8.6% | +9.8% | +9.8% | −1.2% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −2.3% | 62 | +12.0% | +22.1% | +20.3% | +4.7% |
| Dec 26, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −4.8% | 58 | +8.6% | +27.0% | +26.3% | −1.9% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −6.8% | 54 | +2.6% | +26.8% | +26.1% | +0.2% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | backfill | Leans drop | −5.8% | 57 | −1.1% | +17.6% | +15.6% | −4.2% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −0.5% | 70 | −3.3% | +10.5% | +9.3% | −7.4% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 64 | +6.2% | +4.3% | +3.3% | −1.6% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −6.8% | 49 | +13.7% | +15.6% | +11.4% | +3.1% |
| Nov 14, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −6.2% | 51 | −0.7% | +15.8% | +14.5% | −2.4% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −4.5% | 55 | −1.8% | +16.8% | +14.9% | −4.1% |