- 5 days
- −17.1%
- From 52-wk high
- −44.2%
- vs 200-day
- −26.7%
- RSI 14
- 23.0
- 1 month
- −31.4%
- Next earnings
- Tue Feb 2
Daily candles, 6 months
Today vs its past
Its current slide on top of its past 15%+ slides, and what followed charts that looked like today's.
| Next N sessions up | n | 5 | 10 | 20 | Median 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own lookalikes | 0 | – | – | – | – |
| 50-stock pool | 11 | 72.7% | 72.7% | 81.8% | +12.5% |
| Baseline (any day) | all | 56.6% | 58.3% | 61.4% | +2.9% |
- CAT's one rally run since Nov 2024 started -34% below the high with RSI 19. Today: -44%, RSI 23.
- No lookalikes in its own two-year history: today's chart is outside its range. The chart shows other large caps' lookalikes instead.
Latest shock vs similar shocks
Headlines
7%+ one-day drops since Nov 2024
| Date | Drop | QQQ | Kind | Cause | Low after | Sessions to low | Back in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | −8.6% | −5.4% | −18.1% | 3 | 27 | ||
| Oct 29, 2026 | −9.3% | −1.4% | −17.1% | 4 | not yet |
7%+ up days and rally runs
| Date | Gain | QQQ | Setup before | Cause | Next 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2024 | +8.7% | +2.7% | -4%, RSI 51 | −5.3% | |
| Apr 9, 2025 | +9.9% | +12.0% | -34%, RSI 19 | +8.2% | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | +11.6% | +0.5% | -3%, RSI 63 | −2.0% | |
| Feb 6, 2026 | +7.1% | +2.1% | -3%, RSI 62 | −2.9% | |
| Apr 30, 2026 | +9.9% | +0.9% | -3%, RSI 62 | −1.6% |
Rally runs (20%+ from a low)
| Low | High | Gain | Sessions | From high at low | RSI at low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025 | Jun 30, 2026 | +294.8% | 307 | −34.0% | 19 |
Calls on CAT and what followed
Live = saved on the day. Backfill = the same rule re-run on past weeks with only the data known then.
| Date | Kind | Call | From high | RSI | Next 5 | Next 20 | vs SPY 20 | Worst in 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | live | Leans rally | −44.2% | 23 | – | – | – | – |
| Oct 30, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −41.3% | 24 | – | – | – | −5.1% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −35.4% | 27 | −9.1% | – | – | −13.7% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −31.3% | 31 | −6.0% | – | – | −18.9% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −24.7% | 45 | −8.7% | – | – | −26.0% |
| Oct 2, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −20.5% | 59 | −5.3% | −26.2% | −24.4% | −26.2% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −22.7% | 52 | +2.9% | −16.4% | −14.9% | −16.4% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −23.9% | 48 | +1.6% | −9.7% | −9.9% | −9.7% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −23.0% | 48 | −1.2% | −2.2% | −4.3% | −4.4% |
| Sep 4, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −23.4% | 46 | −3.7% | +4.2% | +3.3% | −3.8% |
| Aug 28, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −24.7% | 38 | +1.7% | +2.5% | +2.7% | −2.6% |
| Aug 21, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −22.1% | 43 | −3.3% | −1.4% | −2.6% | −5.9% |
| Aug 14, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −19.4% | 47 | −3.3% | −8.5% | −6.5% | −9.0% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −20.8% | 43 | +1.7% | −3.4% | −3.0% | −7.5% |
| Jul 31, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −23.3% | 36 | +3.4% | −1.8% | −4.8% | −1.8% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −16.4% | 43 | −8.3% | −6.8% | −10.5% | −11.9% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −17.3% | 40 | +1.1% | −2.5% | −7.0% | −10.9% |
| Jul 10, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −10.6% | 50 | −7.6% | −11.4% | −13.8% | −17.7% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −9.5% | 51 | −1.2% | −15.3% | −15.6% | −18.6% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −5.6% | 58 | −2.8% | −12.3% | −13.7% | −13.2% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 66 | +1.2% | −12.2% | −11.5% | −12.2% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −3.2% | 55 | +12.3% | +2.5% | +0.9% | +2.3% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −3.8% | 55 | +0.7% | +4.0% | +2.3% | −5.3% |
| May 29, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −5.5% | 52 | +3.2% | +18.0% | +19.8% | −2.3% |
| May 22, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −5.1% | 56 | −1.7% | +11.9% | +13.2% | −2.7% |
| May 15, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −4.2% | 58 | −0.9% | +5.1% | +3.0% | −3.6% |
| May 8, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −3.2% | 67 | −1.0% | +2.0% | +1.8% | −4.2% |
| May 1, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −0.0% | 75 | +0.9% | −2.7% | −8.0% | −3.3% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −0.5% | 70 | +7.1% | +5.9% | +1.5% | −2.5% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | +0.0% | 64 | +4.7% | +12.0% | +7.9% | +0.7% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | +0.0% | 67 | +0.5% | +13.7% | +5.2% | −2.6% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −7.5% | 53 | +10.2% | +24.3% | +14.4% | +0.6% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −10.3% | 46 | +3.7% | +19.4% | +6.6% | −4.0% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −12.1% | 41 | +2.1% | +17.5% | +8.2% | −2.0% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −10.5% | 44 | −1.9% | +14.1% | +10.2% | −3.8% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −12.1% | 40 | +1.9% | +5.9% | +7.7% | −2.0% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −4.2% | 58 | −8.3% | −6.4% | +0.9% | −8.3% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −2.0% | 67 | −2.2% | −10.4% | −4.7% | −10.4% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −0.1% | 74 | −2.3% | −9.6% | −7.7% | −12.1% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 71 | +6.6% | −2.9% | −1.2% | −6.2% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −1.2% | 63 | +10.5% | +14.4% | +15.3% | +3.2% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −3.4% | 55 | +4.9% | +20.7% | +21.7% | +1.5% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −0.0% | 68 | −1.5% | +18.5% | +19.8% | −2.9% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −1.3% | 61 | +4.7% | +20.4% | +20.5% | +1.7% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −4.3% | 59 | +3.2% | +15.7% | +13.9% | −0.3% |
| Dec 26, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −6.8% | 52 | +5.7% | +9.8% | +9.1% | −1.7% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −7.9% | 50 | +0.4% | +12.3% | +11.6% | −0.6% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −4.4% | 58 | −3.6% | +6.5% | +4.4% | −6.0% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | backfill | Leans drop | +0.0% | 70 | −0.9% | +3.3% | +2.1% | −6.8% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | backfill | Leans drop | −1.7% | 63 | +4.8% | +0.5% | −0.5% | −2.4% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −6.0% | 53 | +3.2% | +5.8% | +1.6% | +1.7% |
| Nov 14, 2025 | backfill | Leans drop | −5.4% | 55 | −0.6% | +6.4% | +5.1% | −1.4% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | backfill | Leans drop | −3.8% | 62 | −1.6% | +5.9% | +4.0% | −3.0% |