- 5 days
- −0.7%
- From 52-wk high
- −1.6%
- vs 200-day
- +5.5%
- RSI 14
- 50.8
- 1 month
- −1.6%
- Next earnings
- –
Daily candles, 6 months
Today vs its past
Its current slide on top of its past 15%+ slides, and what followed charts that looked like today's.
| Next N sessions up | n | 5 | 10 | 20 | Median 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own lookalikes | 10 | 70.0% | 70.0% | 80.0% | +3.4% |
| Baseline (any day) | all | 59.1% | 62.4% | 66.8% | +1.2% |
- SPY's baseline is high (most 20-session stretches in the last two years were up), so even an 80% hit rate is a modest edge. Scheduled macro data (jobs report, CPI, Fed) lands inside any short-dated SPY trade.
- QQQ is heavier in the chip and AI names that are slumping, which is why it sits further off its high than SPY.
7%+ one-day drops since Nov 2024
None.
7%+ up days and rally runs
| Date | Gain | QQQ | Setup before | Cause | Next 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2025 | +10.5% | +12.0% | -19%, RSI 22 | +3.0% |
Rally runs (20%+ from a low)
| Low | High | Gain | Sessions | From high at low | RSI at low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025 | Oct 6, 2026 (ongoing) | +59.5% | 375 | −18.8% | 22 |
Calls on SPY and what followed
Live = saved on the day. Backfill = the same rule re-run on past weeks with only the data known then.
| Date | Kind | Call | From high | RSI | Next 5 | Next 20 | vs SPY 20 | Worst in 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | live | Leans rally | −1.6% | 51 | – | – | – | – |
| Oct 30, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −3.0% | 40 | – | – | – | −0.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −2.5% | 42 | −0.6% | – | – | −1.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −2.0% | 44 | −0.4% | – | – | −1.5% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −0.1% | 60 | −2.0% | – | – | −3.4% |
| Oct 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −0.8% | 55 | +1.2% | −1.8% | +0.0% | −1.8% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −0.6% | 57 | −0.2% | −1.5% | +0.0% | −1.5% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.8% | 51 | +1.3% | +0.2% | +0.0% | +0.1% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.7% | 50 | −0.1% | +2.1% | +0.0% | −1.3% |
| Sep 4, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.0% | 56 | −1.2% | +0.9% | +0.0% | −2.1% |
| Aug 28, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.1% | 57 | +0.1% | −0.2% | +0.0% | −2.0% |
| Aug 21, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.6% | 54 | +0.5% | +1.3% | +0.0% | −1.5% |
| Aug 14, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −0.2% | 66 | −1.4% | −2.0% | +0.0% | −2.4% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | +0.0% | 66 | +0.4% | −0.4% | +0.0% | −1.5% |
| Jul 31, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.4% | 53 | +3.5% | +3.0% | +0.0% | +1.4% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −2.5% | 46 | +1.1% | +3.6% | +0.0% | −1.3% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.9% | 49 | −0.6% | +4.4% | +0.0% | −1.9% |
| Jul 10, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −0.4% | 60 | −1.5% | +2.4% | +0.0% | −3.4% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.7% | 54 | +1.4% | +0.3% | +0.0% | −2.1% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −3.8% | 44 | +3.1% | +1.4% | +0.0% | +1.3% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.4% | 55 | −2.4% | −0.6% | +0.0% | −2.4% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −2.3% | 53 | +0.6% | +1.6% | +0.0% | −1.5% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −2.9% | 50 | +0.6% | +1.6% | +0.0% | −1.6% |
| May 29, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 74 | −2.5% | −1.8% | +0.0% | −4.1% |
| May 22, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −0.3% | 69 | +1.7% | −1.4% | +0.0% | −2.7% |
| May 15, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.2% | 68 | +0.9% | +2.1% | +0.0% | −1.9% |
| May 8, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 76 | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.0% | −0.5% |
| May 1, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 72 | +2.4% | +5.3% | +0.0% | −0.4% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | +0.0% | 70 | +0.9% | +4.4% | +0.0% | −0.3% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | +0.0% | 74 | +0.5% | +4.1% | +0.0% | −0.9% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −2.0% | 60 | +4.5% | +8.6% | +0.0% | +1.0% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −5.4% | 46 | +3.6% | +9.9% | +0.0% | +0.5% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −8.6% | 28 | +3.9% | +12.8% | +0.0% | −0.3% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | backfill | Too few lookalikes | −6.5% | 30 | −2.2% | +9.3% | +0.0% | −2.6% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | backfill | Leans drop | −4.8% | 34 | −1.8% | +3.9% | +0.0% | −4.3% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −3.3% | 38 | −1.5% | −1.7% | +0.0% | −5.8% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −1.4% | 48 | −2.0% | −7.3% | +0.0% | −7.3% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −0.9% | 52 | −0.5% | −5.7% | +0.0% | −5.7% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −2.0% | 44 | +0.1% | −1.9% | +0.0% | −2.9% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −0.7% | 52 | −1.3% | −1.8% | +0.0% | −2.6% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −0.5% | 54 | −0.2% | −0.8% | +0.0% | −2.1% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −0.9% | 53 | +0.4% | −1.0% | +0.0% | −1.7% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −0.5% | 57 | +0.2% | −1.3% | +0.0% | −2.0% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | +0.0% | 62 | −0.3% | −0.0% | +0.0% | −2.4% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.0% | 53 | +1.6% | +1.8% | +0.0% | −0.8% |
| Dec 26, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −0.0% | 62 | −0.4% | +0.8% | +0.0% | −1.8% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.0% | 54 | +1.1% | +0.7% | +0.0% | −0.4% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −1.1% | 54 | +0.1% | +2.1% | +0.0% | −1.5% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −0.2% | 60 | −0.6% | +1.2% | +0.0% | −2.1% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −0.6% | 59 | +0.3% | +1.0% | +0.0% | −1.8% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −4.1% | 42 | +3.2% | +4.2% | +0.0% | +1.5% |
| Nov 14, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −2.2% | 48 | −1.9% | +1.3% | +0.0% | −2.9% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −2.4% | 49 | +0.1% | +1.9% | +0.0% | −2.7% |