Wed Nov 4, 2026 Brent −8.7%
Brent −8.7% · SPY +1.6% · QQQ +1.0% · Bitcoin +4.0% · Duke +2.4% · Utilities +0.4% · Energy −4.7% · Gold +3.7% · RTX −2.6% · Lockheed −6.9% · VIX (pts) -4.2
No Iran headlines were found in the window when this was logged.
What the data says
174 trading sessions since the war began on Feb 27, 2026. Prices through the Nov 4 close.
- Oil became the market's war barometer. Before the war, SPY's daily moves rose slightly with Brent's (+0.21 correlation). Since Feb 27 they move against it (-0.45), and the VIX rises with oil (+0.38).
- On the 26 days Brent jumped 4%+, SPY fell 77% of the time (average −0.39%), Bitcoin fell 62% of the time and the VIX rose +1.1 points. On the 20 days Brent fell 4%+, SPY rose 70% of the time and energy stocks fell −2.1%.
- It's a same-day reaction, not a forecast. The day after an oil spike, SPY's median move was +0.3% over 5 sessions and +3.3% over 20. The selling was usually bought.
- Peace-hope oil drops have a mixed record. Of 7 past drops, 3 were fully retraced within days, all early in the war; the 4 since mid-May held. Today's drop (Nov 2-4) is still in its first sessions.
- Bitcoin's sync with SPY isn't the war. It was +0.41 before the war and +0.43 during it, tighter on oil-shock days (+0.57). Both trade as risk assets; the war just moves them together harder.
- Duke's split from SPY isn't the war either. Duke barely reacts to oil. Over the last 20 sessions it tracked the 10-year yield (-0.73) and moved against chip stocks (-0.74) and Vistra, the AI-power utility (-0.65): money leaving AI and chips, and falling yields, lift regulated utilities.
Brent and SPY through the war
Oil-shock days
Average move on days Brent rose or fell 4% or more since the war began (26 up, 20 down). VIX in points.
| Brent up 4%+ | Brent down 4%+ | |
|---|---|---|
| Brent | +5.9% | −7.6% |
| SPY | −0.4% | +0.7% |
| QQQ | −0.5% | +0.8% |
| Bitcoin | −0.7% | +0.6% |
| Duke | −0.1% | +0.0% |
| Utilities | −0.3% | +0.1% |
| Energy | +1.2% | −2.1% |
| Gold | −0.6% | +0.7% |
| RTX | +0.0% | +0.4% |
| Lockheed | +0.4% | −0.7% |
| VIX (pts) | +1.05 | −0.70 |
Correlation with Brent's daily moves (×100)
| Before the war | During the war | |
|---|---|---|
| SPY | 21 | -45 |
| QQQ | 20 | -34 |
| Bitcoin | 9 | -20 |
| Duke | -8 | 0 |
| Utilities | 10 | -14 |
| Energy | 63 | 65 |
| Gold | 19 | -28 |
| RTX | 21 | -11 |
| Lockheed | 10 | 13 |
| VIX (pts) | -24 | 38 |
The events
Reaction over the event day and the next session, since several announcements came after the close. Escalations sent oil up 83% of the time and SPY down 58%; de-escalations sent oil down 67% and SPY up 67%.
| Date | Kind | Event | Brent | SPY | QQQ | Bitcoin | Duke | Energy | RTX | VIX | SPY next 5 | SPY next 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 26 | De-escalation | Oil -9% as traders price an end to the war (midterm day) | −8.7% | +1.7% | +1.0% | +4.0% | +2.4% | −4.7% | −2.6% | −4.22 | – | – |
| Nov 2 26 | De-escalation | Trump says Iran wants a deal; oil -7% | −11.9% | −0.2% | −0.8% | +0.2% | −0.7% | −4.8% | +2.0% | +1.41 | – | – |
| Oct 22 26 | Escalation | Iran claims seven tankers hit; Brent highest since May | +7.3% | −1.7% | −2.9% | −3.5% | +3.6% | +1.7% | −0.3% | +2.77 | −0.6% | – |
| Sep 24 26 | Escalation | Iran sets an Indian Ocean deadline; Brent +4.4% | +1.2% | +0.5% | +0.4% | −0.4% | −0.7% | −0.5% | −1.5% | −0.31 | −0.2% | −1.5% |
| Sep 9 26 | Escalation | Brent back above $100 | +9.9% | −1.1% | −1.3% | −2.4% | −1.5% | +0.2% | −0.3% | +2.12 | +0.6% | +2.4% |
| Sep 1 26 | Escalation | About 100 US strikes approved; Iran hits US bases | +5.7% | −0.2% | −1.0% | −1.6% | +0.5% | +1.8% | −3.3% | +0.28 | −1.0% | +0.1% |
| Aug 17 26 | Escalation | 60-day memorandum lapses without renewal | +2.8% | −1.1% | −1.9% | +2.7% | +0.1% | +2.9% | +1.1% | +1.59 | −0.2% | −1.7% |
| Aug 12 26 | De-escalation | Second memorandum signed at Versailles | −2.1% | +0.9% | +1.9% | −0.2% | +1.1% | +0.2% | −1.5% | −0.65 | −2.0% | −1.7% |
| Jul 27 26 | De-escalation | Hostilities pause; Brent -11% | −13.1% | +0.3% | −1.3% | −0.4% | −1.0% | −3.4% | +2.7% | −0.37 | +4.1% | +3.4% |
| Jul 8 26 | Escalation | Ceasefire collapses after Iranian attacks on ships; US strikes Unusual | +2.9% | +0.5% | +2.0% | −0.2% | −2.3% | +0.3% | −2.8% | −0.29 | −0.1% | +2.2% |
| Jun 17 26 | De-escalation | Islamabad Memorandum signed; blockades lifted Unusual | +1.1% | −0.2% | +1.5% | −4.1% | −1.7% | −2.9% | −0.6% | −0.01 | −2.4% | −0.6% |
| May 18 26 | De-escalation | Trump calls off a strike wave to allow talks Unusual | +1.8% | −0.7% | −1.0% | −2.9% | +3.0% | +3.1% | +1.9% | −0.37 | +2.3% | +1.0% |
| May 7 26 | Escalation | US strikes on Iran Unusual | +0.0% | +0.5% | +2.2% | −1.5% | −1.1% | −2.3% | −0.4% | −0.20 | +0.2% | +0.2% |
| Apr 21 26 | De-escalation | US announces an indefinite ceasefire Unusual | +6.7% | +0.4% | +1.3% | +3.1% | −2.0% | +2.7% | −7.6% | +0.05 | +0.1% | +4.2% |
| Apr 13 26 | Escalation | Islamabad talks fail Unusual | −0.4% | +2.2% | +2.9% | +1.6% | −1.5% | −1.7% | +0.6% | −0.87 | +1.4% | +6.3% |
| Apr 8 26 | De-escalation | Two-week ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan | −12.2% | +3.1% | +3.7% | −0.2% | +0.9% | −4.7% | +2.7% | −6.29 | +3.2% | +7.6% |
| Mar 2 26 | Escalation | First full week of war; Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz | +12.3% | −0.8% | −0.9% | +3.7% | +0.4% | +1.1% | +1.9% | +3.71 | −0.5% | −4.1% |
| Feb 27 26 | Escalation | US and Israel begin strikes on Iran; the war starts | +9.9% | −0.4% | −0.2% | +2.0% | +1.9% | +3.6% | +7.4% | +2.81 | −1.2% | −7.7% |
| Jun 24 25 | De-escalation | Israel-Iran ceasefire | −5.3% | +1.2% | +1.8% | +1.7% | −0.9% | −1.7% | −3.0% | −3.07 | +2.2% | +4.5% |
| Jun 23 25 | Escalation | First session after US strikes on Fordow and Natanz (Jun 22); Iran's response was limited Unusual | −12.8% | +2.1% | +2.6% | +2.6% | +1.3% | −3.8% | −3.3% | −3.14 | +1.8% | +4.5% |
| Jun 13 25 | Escalation | Israel strikes Iran's nuclear sites | +5.6% | −0.2% | +0.1% | +0.8% | −1.6% | +1.4% | +3.9% | +1.09 | +1.0% | +3.9% |
Why these trended differently
- Jul 8, 2026: Ceasefire collapses after Iranian attacks on ships; US strikes (stocks rose on an escalation)
The Dow fell 1.1% on the day, but mega-cap software and communication stocks held the Nasdaq up while chips sold off; the next session oil slid back and chips rebounded, so the two-day window ended positive. Source: Yahoo Finance, CNBC - Jun 17, 2026: Islamabad Memorandum signed; blockades lifted (oil rose on a de-escalation)
Priced in: WTI had already fallen 16% in the four sessions before the signing on expectations Hormuz would reopen, and analysts called the relief 'largely priced in' with mines and shipping backlogs unresolved. Source: Al Jazeera (Jun 17), Al Jazeera (Jun 18) - May 18, 2026: Trump calls off a strike wave to allow talks (oil rose on a de-escalation; stocks fell on a de-escalation)
Trump postponed the attack but told the Pentagon to be ready for a full assault at short notice; Hormuz stayed mostly closed, the US blockade continued and the IEA warned of shrinking buffers. The real oil drop came over the following weeks as talks progressed. Source: CNBC - May 7, 2026: US strikes on Iran (stocks rose on an escalation)
Limited strikes, some on empty tankers, the day after oil fell 7-8%. The market read them as contained. Source: Wikipedia, Wikipedia oil chronology - Apr 21, 2026: US announces an indefinite ceasefire (oil rose on a de-escalation)
The truce was extended while the shipping lane was shut: Iran re-closed Hormuz on Apr 18 over the US blockade, and Brent jumped about 7% on Apr 19 and again on Apr 20. Oil followed the strait, not the ceasefire. Source: CNN, Al Jazeera - Apr 13, 2026: Islamabad talks fail (oil fell on an escalation; stocks rose on an escalation)
The talks had failed and the US announced a blockade, but Trump said Iranian representatives had phoned wanting a deal, and tech led a rally (Oracle +13%) that erased the S&P 500's war losses. Brent had already spiked above $103 over the weekend and eased during the session. Source: CNBC, France 24 - Jun 23, 2025: First session after US strikes on Fordow and Natanz (Jun 22); Iran's response was limited (oil fell on an escalation; stocks rose on an escalation)
Iran's answer to the US strikes was a missile attack on Al Udeid in Qatar that was telegraphed in advance, and Hormuz stayed open. Traders read it as de-escalation; oil fell 7% and a ceasefire was announced that evening. Source: Hargreaves Lansdown, Kyiv Post
Do peace-hope oil drops stick?
Each cluster of 4%+ Brent drops, counted once. Back = sessions until Brent regained the close before the drop.
| Drop began | Brent that day | Back to pre-drop | Brent 20 sessions later | SPY 20 sessions later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 26 | −11.3% | 2 sessions | +7.9% | +0.1% |
| Mar 23 26 | −10.9% | 4 sessions | −1.5% | +7.4% |
| Apr 1 26 | −14.5% | no | +12.7% | +9.7% |
| May 1 26 | −5.1% | 1 sessions | −12.2% | +5.3% |
| May 20 26 | −5.6% | no | −24.0% | +1.0% |
| Jun 15 26 | −4.8% | no | +2.1% | +0.3% |
| Jul 27 26 | −8.7% | no | +4.3% | +3.3% |
| Nov 2 26 | −10.9% | not yet | – | – |
The pairs: Bitcoin and Duke
Correlation of daily moves with SPY (×100). Oil-shock days are Brent ±4%; calm days are the rest of the war.
| Before war | During war | Oil-shock days | Calm days | Last 60 | Last 20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin vs SPY | 41 | 43 | 57 | 40 | 47 | 68 |
| Duke vs SPY | -5 | -22 | -24 | -22 | -16 | -40 |
| Utilities vs SPY | 44 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | -27 |
What Duke is actually moving with (×100)
| Duke vs | Last 20 sessions | Last 60 sessions |
|---|---|---|
| SPY | -40 | -16 |
| Chips (SOXX) | -74 | -49 |
| 10-year yield | -73 | -66 |
| Vistra (AI power) | -65 | -29 |
| Brent | 4 | -15 |
Logged oil-shock days
Each update saves any day Brent moves 4%+ with the Iran headlines found, so the record builds up and can be checked later.
Read this carefully
- Event dates come from news timelines; some announcements landed after the close, which is why reactions span two sessions. A few events (Apr 21, May 18) saw oil rise anyway: the market had priced the news earlier or doubted it.
- Oil-shock days cluster: March 2026 alone had more than a dozen. They are not independent tests.
- Correlation is not a trade. These are same-day moves; by the time oil has moved, stocks have too. What it does give you is a read on why the tape is moving and how option premiums (the VIX) are likely to react.
- Futures for oil and stocks trade overnight, so a weekend or evening headline shows up in Brent before the stock open.
Sources
- Iran war timeline (Jul-Nov 2026): https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/crisis-timeline/
- 2026 Iran war: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war
- Ceasefire, Apr 8 2026: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/8/oil-prices-slide-stocks-surge-as-trump-announces-two-week-iran-ceasefire
- Strikes, Jul 8 2026: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/8/oil-prices-surge-as-us-strikes-iran-reversing-fall-to-pre-war-levels
- Peace hopes, Nov 2 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/02/oil-prices-fall-as-iran-us-pursue-diplomacy.html
- Oil -9%, Nov 4 2026: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Crashes-9-as-Trump-and-Vance-Blame-Iran-War-for-Midterm-Rout.html
- June 2025 strikes: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/55151
- US-Iran ceasefire and talks (House of Commons Library): https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10637/