- 5 days
- −4.7%
- From 52-wk high
- −21.4%
- vs 200-day
- +0.1%
- RSI 14
- 51.4
- 1 month
- +1.2%
- Next earnings
- Wed Jan 27
Daily candles, 6 months
Today vs its past
Its current slide on top of its past 15%+ slides, and what followed charts that looked like today's.
| Next N sessions up | n | 5 | 10 | 20 | Median 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own lookalikes | 3 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | −3.6% |
| 50-stock pool | 100 | 51.0% | 54.0% | 60.0% | +2.7% |
| Baseline (any day) | all | 49.2% | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.4% |
- TSLA's 8 rally runs since Nov 2024 started from -54% to -18% below the high, RSI 21-40. Today: -21%, RSI 51.
- Already 29% off the July low. This is a recovery in progress, not a fresh washout.
Latest shock vs similar shocks
7%+ one-day drops since Nov 2024
| Date | Drop | QQQ | Kind | Cause | Low after | Sessions to low | Back in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2024 | −8.3% | −3.6% | Market | Hawkish Fed cut; high-flyers sold off after the post-election run. | −53.8% | 74 | 249 |
| Mar 10, 2025 | −15.4% | −3.9% | Market | Nasdaq's worst day in years on recession fears, after European sales collapsed (Feb 25, -8.4%). | −15.4% | 0 | 11 |
| Apr 4, 2025 | −10.4% | −6.2% | Market | Tariff crash day two. | −17.0% | 2 | 4 |
| Jun 5, 2025 | −14.3% | −0.8% | One-time | Public feud between the CEO and the President. | −14.3% | 0 | 12 |
| Jul 24, 2025 | −8.2% | +0.2% | Earnings | Q2 2025: profit drop; CEO warned of "a few rough quarters" as EV credits end. | −9.0% | 6 | 13 |
| Jul 2, 2026 | −7.5% | −1.7% | One-time | Sell-the-news: record Q2 deliveries (480K) but margin worries. | −29.9% | 18 | not yet |
| Jul 23, 2026 | −14.5% | −1.9% | AI spend | Q2 2026: EPS miss, negative free cash flow, $16.7B second-half capex plan. | −20.2% | 4 | 31 |
7%+ up days and rally runs
| Date | Gain | QQQ | Setup before | Cause | Next 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2024 | +14.8% | +2.7% | -7%, RSI 56 | Election result. | +28.1% |
| Nov 8, 2024 | +8.2% | +0.1% | 0%, RSI 71 | +21.3% | |
| Nov 11, 2024 | +9.0% | −0.1% | 0%, RSI 76 | +14.6% | |
| Dec 24, 2024 | +7.4% | +1.4% | -10%, RSI 63 | −14.1% | |
| Jan 3, 2025 | +8.2% | +1.6% | -21%, RSI 45 | −4.4% | |
| Jan 15, 2025 | +8.0% | +2.3% | -17%, RSI 49 | −16.9% | |
| Mar 12, 2025 | +7.6% | +1.1% | -52%, RSI 24 | +9.7% | |
| Mar 24, 2025 | +11.9% | +2.2% | -48%, RSI 39 | −14.5% | |
| Apr 9, 2025 | +22.7% | +12.0% | -54%, RSI 36 | 90-day tariff pause (market-wide; QQQ +12%). | +4.6% |
| Apr 25, 2025 | +9.8% | +1.1% | -46%, RSI 51 | +19.1% | |
| Jun 23, 2025 | +8.2% | +1.0% | -33%, RSI 51 | Robotaxi launch in Austin. | −4.8% |
| Sep 12, 2025 | +7.4% | +0.4% | -23%, RSI 67 | +4.4% | |
| Apr 15, 2026 | +7.6% | +1.4% | -26%, RSI 46 | +13.6% | |
| Jun 29, 2026 | +8.5% | +2.5% | -22%, RSI 41 | −25.3% |
Rally runs (20%+ from a low)
| Low | High | Gain | Sessions | From high at low | RSI at low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2025 | Mar 25, 2025 | +29.7% | 11 | −53.7% | 21 |
| Apr 8, 2025 | Apr 9, 2025 | +22.7% | 1 | −53.8% | 36 |
| Apr 21, 2025 | May 27, 2025 | +59.5% | 25 | −52.6% | 40 |
| Jun 5, 2025 | Jun 23, 2025 | +22.5% | 11 | −40.7% | 38 |
| Jul 7, 2025 | Nov 3, 2025 | +59.3% | 84 | −38.7% | 40 |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Dec 16, 2025 | +25.3% | 16 | −18.5% | 38 |
| Apr 8, 2026 | May 13, 2026 | +29.7% | 25 | −29.9% | 34 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Oct 27, 2026 (ongoing) | +36.6% | 63 | −39.1% | 25 |
Calls on TSLA and what followed
Live = saved on the day. Backfill = the same rule re-run on past weeks with only the data known then.
| Date | Kind | Call | From high | RSI | Next 5 | Next 20 | vs SPY 20 | Worst in 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | live | No clear edge | −21.4% | 51 | – | – | – | – |
| Oct 30, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −18.4% | 61 | – | – | – | −3.7% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −24.0% | 52 | +7.4% | – | – | +3.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −27.6% | 42 | +4.9% | – | – | +3.8% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −21.9% | 60 | −7.3% | – | – | −7.3% |
| Oct 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −24.4% | 55 | +3.3% | +7.9% | +9.7% | −4.3% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −24.0% | 55 | −0.4% | +0.0% | +1.5% | −5.2% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −25.6% | 54 | +2.2% | −2.6% | −2.8% | −3.1% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −25.4% | 54 | −0.3% | +4.7% | +2.6% | −3.4% |
| Sep 4, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −27.7% | 51 | +1.4% | +7.0% | +6.1% | −0.4% |
| Aug 28, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −28.8% | 51 | +1.5% | +2.5% | +2.7% | +1.5% |
| Aug 21, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −25.9% | 58 | −3.9% | +3.4% | +2.2% | −4.7% |
| Aug 14, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −30.1% | 49 | +6.0% | +4.9% | +6.9% | −1.6% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −32.9% | 41 | +4.2% | +7.8% | +8.2% | −0.3% |
| Jul 31, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −36.5% | 32 | +5.6% | +12.1% | +9.1% | +2.7% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −36.1% | 28 | −0.6% | +15.9% | +12.3% | −4.7% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −22.3% | 43 | −17.8% | −10.1% | −14.6% | −21.7% |
| Jul 10, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −16.8% | 51 | −6.6% | −19.4% | −21.8% | −26.8% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −19.7% | 47 | +3.6% | −20.9% | −21.2% | −24.2% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −22.5% | 41 | +10.6% | −18.6% | −19.9% | −18.6% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −18.2% | 47 | −5.2% | −7.7% | −7.1% | −7.7% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −17.0% | 49 | −0.3% | −2.5% | −4.1% | −7.7% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −20.2% | 40 | +3.9% | +3.0% | +1.4% | −4.1% |
| May 29, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −11.0% | 60 | −10.3% | −5.5% | −3.7% | −13.9% |
| May 22, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −13.0% | 58 | −2.4% | −10.4% | −9.1% | −10.4% |
| May 15, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −13.8% | 58 | +0.9% | −2.6% | −4.7% | −9.6% |
| May 8, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −12.6% | 70 | −1.4% | −4.5% | −4.7% | −8.7% |
| May 1, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −20.2% | 56 | +9.6% | +6.4% | +1.2% | −0.4% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −23.2% | 49 | +3.9% | +13.2% | +8.8% | −0.9% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −18.2% | 60 | −6.1% | +5.4% | +1.3% | −6.9% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −28.8% | 37 | +14.8% | +22.8% | +14.2% | +1.0% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −26.4% | 39 | −3.2% | +8.4% | −1.5% | −4.8% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −26.1% | 34 | −2.5% | +4.7% | −8.1% | −5.1% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −24.9% | 32 | −1.7% | +6.7% | −2.6% | −6.7% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −20.1% | 40 | −5.9% | −9.9% | −13.8% | −12.3% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −19.0% | 41 | −1.4% | −11.1% | −9.3% | −11.1% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −17.8% | 41 | −1.4% | −10.1% | −2.8% | −10.1% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −15.9% | 43 | −2.3% | −10.7% | −5.0% | −10.7% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −14.8% | 45 | −4.2% | −5.2% | −3.4% | −6.3% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −16.1% | 42 | +1.5% | −3.0% | −1.2% | −4.5% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −12.1% | 46 | −4.5% | −6.3% | −5.5% | −7.7% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −8.3% | 52 | −4.2% | −11.0% | −10.0% | −11.5% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −10.7% | 44 | −0.5% | −6.1% | −4.9% | −9.2% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | backfill | Leans rally | −9.2% | 48 | −1.7% | −6.2% | −6.2% | −10.7% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | backfill | No clear edge | −10.6% | 42 | +1.6% | −3.7% | −5.5% | −4.9% |
| Dec 26, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −3.0% | 57 | −4.9% | −9.3% | −10.1% | −11.8% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −1.8% | 62 | −4.5% | −10.3% | −11.0% | −12.9% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | backfill | Leans rally | −4.4% | 60 | +4.8% | −2.6% | −4.6% | −6.0% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −5.2% | 61 | +0.9% | −4.8% | −6.0% | −4.8% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −10.4% | 52 | +5.8% | +6.9% | +5.9% | −0.2% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −18.5% | 38 | +10.0% | +25.0% | +20.7% | +6.8% |
| Nov 14, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −15.7% | 41 | −3.3% | +17.5% | +16.2% | −3.3% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | backfill | No clear edge | −10.5% | 47 | −5.9% | +2.3% | +0.5% | −8.9% |